The Week That Was

A Week with Phoebe

It's been six days (for me) since Phoebe was deployed. It was painless update for me and after I'd returned from an evening out I updated my client and was logged in about 30 minutes after Tranquillity came back online.

The new sensor overlay was amazing to see in space, my CEO had fits of pleasure when he saw all his tacticals, perches and other bookmarks when he undocked. I've turned most of the overlay stuff off for day-to-day use but there have been a few occasions, around camped gates, that having the bookmarks appear in space has saved me precious seconds that could have seen me captured. 

I haven't been doing jumps since before Phoebe so I can't say how much jump fatigue will effect me (not much is my prediction). I will be doing some jumps in the coming week, friends need stuff taken in/out plus its good to at least move my market items to high sec ready to move to Jita for sale.

Domination Commander

I've been doing ratting in Curse not because I was bored or in need of ISK but because I was testing out new ships and fits. My current Gila does the job but there are other ships I've never flown that may be better. It has been quite fun using different Faction and T2 ships to see what could replace my Gila as my primary ratting ship but nothing so far has come anywhere near the Gila in terms of cost/dps although I'm going to look at Polarized weapons as an extra 25% damage may be worth it.

During one run I even managed to get my first ever Domination Faction Battleship spawn, previously I'd always gotten Cruiser sized faction spawns, I was hoping that this time I'd get some decent loot and I kind of did but a Domination Shield Amplifier, 1,000 faction ammo and a faction tag was quite a let down. I swear I had better cruiser faction spawns in Providence when I was there, Domination just seem to be ammo, tags and not much else. 

I shouldn't complain too much the Domination Shield Amplifier was worth around 60m.

Results of my tests have been mixed and as much as I love my Amarrian Lasers I've found them to be seriously wanting against the local rats and I've not been at all happy with the fits I've been using. I've been keeping copious notes so in the future you can expect to see a blog post on what I've been doing.

Metamaterials Pricing

Being a producer of Metamaterials I've been saddened by the unit price over the past 8 months. As I've previously written, the price has been very volatile but not in a predictable way. Sure its market so its dependant on other factors but the more T2/capital ships destroyed the more metamaterials will be needed to build new ones. We've seen a lot of ships destroyed but volume of metamaterials sold has been all over the place and pricing with it.

I'm going to see if I can get Lockefox (EVE-Prosper Market Show) to have a look at the prices to see if there is an correlation or pattern to the pricing/volume. I am certain there should be correlation, i.e. certain ships need metamaterials thus more of these destroyed the need for metamaterials increases, but I'm yet to see any proof that this is true.

All Quiet on the Southern Front

There is an active war front near to my home system and as I said last week having PL as nearby neighbours is somewhat concerning but I'm happy to report so far that aside from a few PL or PL-affiliated characters passing through I haven't seen any of them.

I've seen Battle Reports and linked kill mails about what their exploits against HERO but they seem to be nice and busy again them rather than trying to take over the region.

Of course that could change tomorrow but at the moment things are quiet.

Market Activity

Since coming into a "gift of ISK" I've changed my approach to my market activities because I no longer need to make "x ISK per day" in order to keep my accounts active and buy what I need. 

I'm stockpiling the materials I'm making at the moment with no plans to sell unless there is a major market price change. Hopefully what I learn from EVE-Prosper will help me see that well before it happens and I can take advantage and profit greatly :)

EVE-Prosper Show Update

Episode 003 is live and it is much better than previous episodes. Best. Episode. So. Far. as comic book guy might say. The show was more polished this week and I'm sure we'll only be hearing less err.. and ah's" from Lockefox as he gains more confidence in his presenting.

*drool* graph p0rn

The interview with Diana Dial was interesting but it was frustrating with the delays and empty air that happened a few times. Not a production issue more Skype or whatever method of communication they were using (I believe) but this was more than compensated by the excellent discussion between Lockefox and Diana.

I'm loving the graphs that are appearing, as well as looking great they are presented so simply that even an idiot like myself can see the important bits without needing a degree in mathematics.

Jump Changes and Me

I've spent much of the past 24 hours reading posts about the changes to Jump Drives coming in Phoebe and investigating how they will effect my logistics network in order to move products and materials to and from high sec.

Let it be known I like the changes in terms of limiting Force Projection of Capital Ships but the changes in relation to Jump Freighters/Capital Industrial Ships I am not liking at all.

What I Do In NPC Null

Normalised to the minimum I have found that I do the following in NPC Null:

1. Manufacture in NPC Null of T1 modules using locally sourced and imported materials
2. Manufacture in NPC Null of T2 modules using some locally sourced but predominately imported materials 
3. Manufacture T1 and T2 rigs using locally sourced and imported salvage materials 
4. Ship out Reacted Materials for sale in order to fund Manufacturing and Research operations in NPC Null
5. Sell Manufactured T1/T2 modules/rigs on my local market

I also mission and rat in order to supplement my income in and around my market system (these aren't primary activities though and aren't listed above) nor is my my high sec trading/speculation listed as it is out of the scope of this discussion.

Exporting

I make metamaterials for sale to help fund my operations, it contributes to my income that I then use to purchase the minerals, T2 components and salvage needed to manufacture the range of T1/T2 modules and rigs I produce.

I never leave NPC Null with a partially filled Jump Freighter, it is always full whether that is with materials I need moved or courier contracts from corp/alliance that need to go to high sec.

My logistics network at the moment means I have to do two jumps to get to high sec, approximately 20 light years in total distance. I have two dedicated cyno characters in my primary jump systems but with clones in a secondary system should the primary be too dangerous to use.

Fuel wise it costs me less than 700 liquid ozone and 22,000 isotopes per trip to leave my NPC Null home. Once I reach my high sec entry system its a matter of dropping off any courier contracts or shipping materials to Jita for sale by my trading alt.

Importing

It is rare I make more than one jump a week but I do ad-hoc services, for a fee, should someone need it but I import raw materials for my metamaterial reactions as well as minerals, T2 components and salvage as needed to meet any shortfalls I have for production.

I try to plan at least 4 weeks ahead in what I need with at least 2 weeks reserve in case of unforeseen difficulties. As a result I typically make one run a week from Jita to NPC Null and if space is available carry courier contracts for corp/alliance in addition to what I need bought in.

I'd estimate at least 75%, probably closer to 90% if I'm honest, of what I need has to be imported from High Sec. 

Sourcing Locally

Local politics and supply issues mean that even if I tried I could not source all my requirements locally. 

I'm surrounded by entities that are hostile to me and my alliance, not to mention that roving gangs are regular visitors to Curse that make it extremely unwise to pilot anything larger than a hauler more than one or two jumps.

Those that I have spoken to aren't interested in selling me what they make at a reduced price, Jita price is the base but more often than not its Jita plus 10% or 20%, but they'd rather move it to Jita to sell than helping a "red" locally.

There are a lot of reactions happening in the Constellation I'm in, I've performed a full moon survey of the nearest 12 systems and have a good idea what is being made. However most of the high end moons are being extracted rather than reacted with other materials. It seems its easier to extract Hafnium or Mercury and move it for sale in Jita than it is to setup production POS'es and manage them.

PI materials are non-existent in the local market and everyone produces for themselves or, again, for export to Jita. Again I've spoken to some PI producers who aren't in my alliance and they aren't interested in making materials for sale to me both because I'm "red" but also because it will not be as profitable (so they have said).

Minerals I am able to get from reprocessing wrecks, although this no longer yields as much as it used to, as well as the odd hauler spawn but these do not provide all or even the quantities I need of minerals to produce items. I could mine, and I do sometimes, but I am missing out on Mexallon, Isogen and Morphite bearing asteroids so I continually need to import these minerals above all others. Tritanium I've got nearly a billion units of and most of the rest I have between several tens of million (pyerite) or thousands of units (nocxium/megacyte).

I salvage wrecks in belts or mission sites I've been given access to and over the course of 30 days this provides a lot of salvage materials but none is for sale, at least at reasonable prices, locally and anyone else who stockpiles is either doing so for shipping to Jita for resale or produce rigs themselves and do not want to supply a competitor.

Major Consideration - Jump Range Change

Changing the maximum jump distance to 5ly for all jump capable ships will very possibly kill my efforts and I'll leave NPC Null for something either significantly closer to high sec or I may just move onto something new. I just don't know,  I'm not feeling quite so fatalistic about this situation as Lorna is but I am facing a serious threat to my activities that I cannot see a reasonable or simple solution to.

As I said in my opening, my Export route is currently two jumps and requires two cyno characters and no more than 10 minutes of action at the keyboard to do. 

Using DOTLAN to simulate the 5ly limit for my JF pilots (JDC 0, JFC V and JF V) I find now that 2 jumps becomes 7 jumps with four of those jumps requiring stops in non-NPC Null systems held by entities that are hostile to me. I can't see any way of getting blue status with them nor can I really "ninja cyno" as a Jump Freighter cannot fit a cloaking device and thus would be easy pickings for any probe carrying combat ship.

Looking for alternative routes I can change two of the stops to other systems but again they are either held by the same hostile entities or another one entirely. Some choice I have there.

Minor Considerations

Then of course there will be the two other "minor" changes I'd need to keep abreast of:

• Additional jumps means additional cyno characters, ships, modules and fuel needed

7 jumps means I'd need new cyno characters in new systems, that I don't have station access in order to jump. Wait I don't have station access so I'd need another character in a cloaked ship holding spare modules, cyno ships and fuel.

• Using jump clones for cyno characters could increase the jump time from minutes to at least a day or two depending on setup

Instead of adding new characters maybe I can use jump clones instead...  And if I did use Jump Clones I'd have to train them up to be able to have multiple clones (at least 5) and be maximum skilled in Cynosural Theory so as to not require cargo modules and use the minimum amount of fuel per lighting.

And then of course you've got to take into account the jump clone timers, what takes 10 minutes now and I don't need to do any jump cloning may take one or two days to complete the full journey due to the cool down period between jumps. I could add more cyno characters but I'd need to start another new account dedicated to cyno characters and I have more than enough accounts at the moment.

Of course jump cloning would only work if I had access to friendly stations on the route that I can install a clone and store ships, modules and fuel in. Ah, wait I don't.

• Use the gate network to move cyno characters ahead of the jump freighter and light as needed

I'd could use my cyno characters to travel through gates each time I needed a cyno but this would opening up the opportunity that I could die on the way (very likely) or be followed and have someone spring a trap and catch my jump freighter (very possibly).

What About Wormholes

I did have someone say that wormholes may be the saviour for people like myself. Find a nice Null->Low Sec (which I could jump out of) or Null->High Sec connector and I'd be all good. In theory it could work but in practice it wouldn't (I don't think).

I've seen four WH's in my home system in the past 2 weeks. 3 were to WH space and one was a null->null connector that was even deeper located than I was. I really don't see WH's being able to help.

Conclusion

The jump range change will more than half my JF range (11.25ly to 5ly) and limit the systems I can use whilst increasing the stops I must make on the way in hostile systems.

As a result my conclusion is simple, based on what has been announced, I will no longer be able to, as of Phoebe, be able to run a logistics network from my NPC Null home to high sec. 

We still have almost 2 months until Phoebe is released. Things can change, although as this post says:

Since this is a dev blog, this means it that CCP is a lot more solid on its decisions here than it would be in a trial balloon dev post on the forums

meaning that these changes are probably decided and unlikely to significantly, if at all, change between now and release.

Bugger.

We'll have to wait to see what happens and whether the feedback CCP are getting is going to see changes or not.

Stop, Revive and Survive

The post title comes from a Road Safety campaign from one of the Australian states and seems rather apt (to me) with the announced changes from CCP with regard to Jump Drives and Capital Ships.

Long Term Plan

Announced overnight by CCP Greyscale in a devblog are details of the three phases of changes that are coming to null sec over a-yet-to-be-given time scale:

• Phase 1 - Long-Distance Travel
• Phase 2 - Medium-Term Changes
• Phase 3 - Dynamic Warfare and Granular Territory Control

Very little information is given for Phases 2 and 3 but we have a lot of detail for Phase 1 as this is being planned for the next Expansion, called Phoebe, in November 2014.

Changes, Soon

It is made clear form the devblog that the changes are not "a silver bullet" that will fix all issues in null sec in one go but instead will form part of a greater number of changes, over time, that will represent a significant improvement to "specific areas of concern" within EVE Online.

The major change coming will be changes to how capital ships can move:

• they will now be able to use gates in null and low sec
• their jump distance changed to a maximum of 5ly per jump

but by far the biggest change are the new timers:

• Jump Activation - counter that shows how long you have to wait until you can jump again
• Jump Fatigue - counter of accumulated jump fatigue that is used to calculate the Jump Activation timer when you do jump

New Timers for Jump activation and Jump fatigue

An example is given in the devblog of how this will work in practice but basically the further you jump the longer it will take you because the length of wait between jumps will increase due to Jump Fatigue. 

Read the devblog, it clearly lays out the functionality and how it will work much better than if I reproduced it here.

Jump Freighters/Capital Industrial Ships

The Jump changes potentially could have a massive impact on goods movement within null sec and CCP appear to have foreseen this and have given Jump Freighters and Capital Industrial Ships (i.e. Rorqual) a role bonus that will reduce these timers by 90%.

From my perspective this is great, it means that when I have my "logi day" I won't have to worry too much about jump timers slowing my jumps down. I did have to check the jump range of JF's but they already are at 5ly so there won't be much change for me.

Fuel costs already went up, now I may have a couple of minutes between jumps when I use midpoints but aside from that these changes won't impact me very much I believe. 

How Will This Change Things

This certainly will have an impact on force projection but it will not change the ability of the current Null Sec power blocs to retain their power. They will need to adapt and change but the ability for them to deploy will not be greatly diminished and we will certainly see capital armadas moving via gates, with sub-capital support, to continue to strike fear into any smaller groups looking to get a foothold anywhere in Null.

We could see the end of large empires spanning entire quarters of null sec but entire regions would still be defensible and with the changes to jump mechanics it will make more sense for power blocs to maximise the use of the systems they have and relinquish control over areas they cannot actively defend or would be more trouble than they are actually worth.

Null Sec Power Blocs

These changes could stimulate Null Sec industry, forcing characters to use the space they have rather than claiming it and not making use of it. New null sec trading hubs could be created and catered to by local industry rather than importing everything from High Sec. 

A lot of space is currently unused because it is not very resource rich or profitable, Phases 2 and 3 should address this and perhaps we'll see rebalancing of system sec and upgrades that mean space is finally worth owning.

My own hope is that there will be smaller entities, be they Corporations or Alliances, that can will finally be able to gain themselves a small foothold in one or two systems in areas that the current Power Blocs cannot easily assault or want to retain because they cannot profit from them.

Actually I love that this brings risk back into null sec, no longer can wrecking ball fleets or massed capitals move around with impunity and at high speed.

More To Come

I see there is some "hurt feelings" in some quarters, so much so that they has been a leak of a post/message that CSM Member/Providence Head FC corebloodbrothers on internal forums.

People certainly get passionate about changes, especially if they feel it will have a negative impact and after having lived in Providence myself I can recall the insular and "me" behaviour a lot of people had. 

Changes can only be good, in the long term. Short term it means everyone will need to look at what they're doing and finding new ways of existing or adapting to the changes.

Reaction

"I was astonished by CCP’s latest DEV blog"
                                                                - EVE Hermit
"Dis gon b gud"
                     - Neville Smit

"I actually rather like this"
                                   - Stabs

Three quotes from three people who don't jump to conclusions or mince their words. These quotes come from their respective blogs based on their feelings on the devblog.

Wilhelm Arcturus also has an excellent write up, he even tries to explain to his non-EVE readers what this change could be compared to in other games. The other three seems positive about the changes but Wilhelm is, from my reading, on the fence about the changes possibly even thinking that they don't go far enough.

I believe they are a good start, I still feel that a mass restriction on cynosural fields is another way of limiting force projection, but what we're seeing (subject to feedback and change) is an excellent start and certainly seems to open the way for splintering of null sec space away from the current Power Blocs.

I'm sure over the next couple of days we'll see more comment come out, there will be the nay-sayers and the EVE Online Forums will be full of people saying the changes are too much and they will be quitting because of them. 

These changes are the start of something good and perhaps its time for a culling of the old guard to allow new players a chance to get into the game without the bitter vets of old.